The Global Crash, an unprecedented event would be an understatement. 11/1/25
LONG-COVID CRISIS I’d bet that long-Covid affects more than 7% of the US population, in one way or another!
THE EVERYTHING BUBBLE AND 2026.
Why the decline of the US Currency: based on data from late 2025 and January 2026, the US dollar has been in a, significant decline, marking one of its weakest performances in recent years.
As of late January 2026, the Dollar Index (DXY) has faced mounting pressure, falling to multi-month lows, with some reports calling the movement a "free fall" following actions that suggest potential, though unlikely, coordinated intervention.
Key Factors in the Current Decline:
Federal Reserve Policy: The primary driver is the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates multiple times in late 2025, which reduces the appeal of holding the dollar.
Trade Policies: Proposed tariff policies and increased political volatility have negatively affected the currency's value.
Market Sentiment: Investors are showing decreased confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, shifting toward alternatives like gold.
Economic Outlook: While AI-driven investments have provided some stability, experts expect the currency to face further downward pressure throughout 2026.
What to Expect:
Analysts suggest the dollar is likely entering a "second act" of weakness, with forecasts indicating the depreciation could continue in 2026. However, some experts believe this is a cyclical decline rather than a full-blown structural collapse, as the dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency. AI Overview
GDP ratio v. USA debt:
US National Debt is over 38trillion, 200billion………And the debt clock is spinning out of control!
US GDP: The current-dollar nominal GDP, a measure of the size of the U.S. economy, reached $29.977 trillion in the first quarter of 2025.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: This ratio indicates the burden of debt relative to the country's economic output. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 121%. A higher ratio generally suggests a greater challenge for a government to repay its debt. According to one source, the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded $36 trillion in June 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%. (Source Google, Gemini)
Elon Musk on Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”:
US Household debt 2025
Key Indicators of Financial Strain
Record Household Debt: Total U.S. household debt reached a new record of approximately $18.59 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, a $4.4 trillion increase since the end of 2019.
Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies: While overall balance sheets are considered relatively strong at a macro level, there are significant signs of weakness among certain populations. Credit card delinquencies are on the rise, and auto loan and student loan default rates are at their highest since the Great Recession years.
Middle-Class Struggle: One-third of the American middle class reportedly cannot afford basic necessities as of 2023, and many households, particularly in middle-income brackets, are struggling financially despite stable incomes due to rising costs.
High Interest Costs: The cost of servicing debt has risen faster than incomes for most households, and the average credit card APR is over 22%, meaning millions are paying hundreds or thousands of dollars in extra interest each year.
Living on the Edge: Nearly 35% of Americans in a recent survey said they probably or definitely would not be able to come up with $2,000 for an unexpected expense, up from 30% in a 2021 survey. The use of "buy-now-pay-later" services for daily essentials, not just large purchases, suggests many are living very close to their financial limits.
Nuance in the Data
K-shaped Economy: There is a growing divide, with some consumers demonstrating heightened financial resilience while others face mounting challenges. This "K-shaped" economic recovery sees the rich getting richer while some lower-income individuals and younger borrowers struggle.
Mortgage Debt: The bulk of household debt is mortgages, and those delinquency rates remain low, a positive sign that a crisis like 2008 has not hit yet.
Debt is Not Always Bad: Borrowing can be a sound part of a long-term financial plan (e.g., a mortgage builds equity), but the concern lies in high-interest, non-productive debt like credit card balances used for everyday expenses.
In summary, a significant portion of Americans are facing considerable financial stress, driven by high inflation, rising interest rates, and an increased reliance on debt for daily living expenses. While not everyone is "over their head," the growing number of people struggling with unmanageable debt signals a pervasive and concerning issue for the U.S. consumer base.
Economic experts and analyses suggest that the tariffs imposed by President Trump are likely to have a negative impact on the US economy, though the severity of this impact is subject to differing estimations.
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Here's a breakdown of the key points:
Potential Negative Impacts:
Reduced GDP and Wages: The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) projectsthat the tariffs could reduce long-run GDP by approximately 6% and wages by 5%, leading to a substantial lifetime loss for middle-income households.
Higher Prices for Consumers: Tariffs act as a tax on imported goods, leading to increased costs for consumers, particularly for everyday items. The Center for American Progress estimates the potential annual cost to American households to be $5,200.
Increased Unemployment: Experts predict a potential increase in the unemployment rate due to the tariffs.
Reduced Competitiveness for Businesses: Tariffs can raise the cost of imported materials for US manufacturers, making them less competitive in the global market. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries further exacerbate this issue by making US exports more expensive.
Economic Uncertainty: The unpredictable nature of trade policies can create uncertainty, discouraging investment and hindering economic activity.
Magnitude of Impact:
Different economic models project varying levels of impact, but they generally indicate negative consequences. Some economists estimate that the tariffs could lead to recessionary conditions, particularly if they persist for a prolonged period.
Important Considerations:
Foreign Retaliation: The analysis from the Tax Foundation indicates that foreign retaliation further reduces the projected GDP and revenue from tariffs.
Benefits of Tariff Revenue: The revenue generated by tariffs could be used to reduce federal debt, which could encourage private investment.
Overall, while the extent of the economic impact is debated, there is a strong consensus among economists that Trump's tariffs have the potential to harm the US economy through various channels, including reduced growth, higher prices, and increased unemployment. (Source, Google AI). 6/29/25
DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) FAILURE
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy in early 2025, has been described by various reports as a failure that caused significant harm to government operations and, according to some estimates, led to unnecessary deaths. Critics and reports indicate that rather than achieving significant efficiency, the initiative created chaos, disrupted critical services, and resulted in unintended negative consequences.
Key Allegations and Reported Impacts:
Global Health and Mortality: Analysts and reports suggest that DOGE's actions, particularly regarding the gutting of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), have already caused or could lead to hundreds of thousands—potentially millions—of excess deaths globally due to the disruption of foreign aid and health initiatives.
Disruption of Veteran Services: Massive cuts to the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) disrupted studies for patients seeking experimental medicines and created uncertainty for those receiving care.
Operational Chaos and Failure: The initiative was plagued by errors, including the use of an AI tool that led to the erroneous cancellation of nearly 600 contracts. Reports also noted that DOGE staffers attempted to gain access to sensitive government data, raising security concerns.
Economic Impact: While the goal was to cut $1 trillion, independent analyses estimated the actual savings were far less (sometimes cited as under $5 billion). Conversely, the costs of implementing the cuts—including rehiring mistakenly fired workers and legal challenges—have been estimated to offset much of the claimed savings.
Dissolution: As of late 2025, reports indicated that DOGE had quietly disbanded eight months before its scheduled expiration date, with the Office of Personnel Management confirming it is no longer a centralized agency.
In summary, while promoted as a way to increase efficiency, DOGE has been characterized as having caused significant disruptions in federal services, increased risks to data security, and resulted in substantial loss of life due to the halting of foreign aid programs.