The best blueberries come out of California! Let’s hope that good people aren’t being deported. 7/10/25
8/2/25 US JOBS REPORT
Note: Tariffs are starting to talk.
United States Debt:
Unemployment USA: The U.S. unemployment rate currently stands at 4.2%. This rate has remained unchanged for the past two months, holding steady since May 2024. The number of unemployed individuals in the U.S. is approximately 7.2 million. (Source Google, Gemini)
GDP ratio v. USA debt:
US National Debt is over 37trillion, 200billion………And the debt clock is spinning out of control!
US GDP: The current-dollar nominal GDP, a measure of the size of the U.S. economy, reached $29.977 trillion in the first quarter of 2025.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: This ratio indicates the burden of debt relative to the country's economic output. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 121%. A higher ratio generally suggests a greater challenge for a government to repay its debt. According to one source, the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded $36 trillion in June 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%. (Source Google, Gemini)
Elon Musk on Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”:
Economic experts and analyses suggest that the tariffs imposed by President Trump are likely to have a negative impact on the US economy, though the severity of this impact is subject to differing estimations.
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Here's a breakdown of the key points:
Potential Negative Impacts:
Reduced GDP and Wages: The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) projectsthat the tariffs could reduce long-run GDP by approximately 6% and wages by 5%, leading to a substantial lifetime loss for middle-income households.
Higher Prices for Consumers: Tariffs act as a tax on imported goods, leading to increased costs for consumers, particularly for everyday items. The Center for American Progress estimates the potential annual cost to American households to be $5,200.
Increased Unemployment: Experts predict a potential increase in the unemployment rate due to the tariffs.
Reduced Competitiveness for Businesses: Tariffs can raise the cost of imported materials for US manufacturers, making them less competitive in the global market. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries further exacerbate this issue by making US exports more expensive.
Economic Uncertainty: The unpredictable nature of trade policies can create uncertainty, discouraging investment and hindering economic activity.
Magnitude of Impact:
Different economic models project varying levels of impact, but they generally indicate negative consequences. Some economists estimate that the tariffs could lead to recessionary conditions, particularly if they persist for a prolonged period.
Important Considerations:
Foreign Retaliation: The analysis from the Tax Foundation indicates that foreign retaliation further reduces the projected GDP and revenue from tariffs.
Benefits of Tariff Revenue: The revenue generated by tariffs could be used to reduce federal debt, which could encourage private investment.
Overall, while the extent of the economic impact is debated, there is a strong consensus among economists that Trump's tariffs have the potential to harm the US economy through various channels, including reduced growth, higher prices, and increased unemployment. (Source, Google AI). 6/29/25